Analysts Agree: Kinect’s 3M Sales Claim Will Be Biggest Platform Launch, Surpassing iPad

Microsoft has claimed that Kinect will sell over three million units this Christmas, destroy iPad sales and perhaps even be the biggest platform launch of all time.

Eurogamer recently spoke with top three industry analysts. The verdict? Likely.

Jesse Divnich, vice president of Analyst Services:

“Microsoft hasn’t been shy about their aggressiveness with the Kinect, something I can respect,”

Microsoft hasn’t had the most successful launches in the technology sector over the last few years. Bing and Zune continue to struggle, and the Kin, Microsoft’s giant step into the mobile market, is now officially discontinued.

“I believe Microsoft is just simply communicating to us all that the Kinect will not be another Bing, or Zune, or worse, Kin.

“Three million units is certainly aggressive, and it is rare to see any organization toss out unit estimates well before launch, but I believe it just speaks to the high confidence level within Microsoft.

“With Microsoft’s plan to aggressively market the Kinect this holiday season, hitting three million units is possible.”

Outspoken Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter agreed.

“It seems reasonable to me,” he said. “They’re going to likely sell close to three million Xbox 360s in November and December, and the Kinect bundles are pretty attractively priced, both for entry level (with the Arcade model for $300) and for replacement (with the 250Gb model for $400).

“My guess is that they will sell around half of consoles with the bundle, so they need another 1.5 million standalone units to hit their goal.”

Pachter, however, reckons the £130 Kinect will be a “high price” for hardcore gamers.

“I’m not as optimistic as you that this is a conservative figure. The standalone units mean that existing 360 owners are willing to pay $150 for something that they aren’t convinced they need.

“I think that’s a high price for a ‘nice to have’ peripheral, and although I see the potential of Kinect over time, I’m not sure that most gamers will see that as a necessary option, particularly if they just bought Halo Reach, Fable, Medal of Honor, Vanquish and Call of Duty.”

Colin Sebastian, from Lazard Capital Markets, also backed Microsoft.

“This sounds like a reasonable expectation for sell-through, and is consistent with our estimates,” he said.

Kinect is set to launch November 4 2010 and retail for $150. A Xbox 360 bundled with Kinect will cost $200 and hit stores on August 3 2010.